[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 Mar due to two isolated
low level C class flares from AR2965. Solar region AR2965 (N21W66)
continued to decay. There are no solar regions of significance
currently on the solar disc, however a new spotted region at
S28E22 is showing growth. Region AR2965 may produce further C
class events before rotating over the western solar limb in about
two days time. A small faint solar filament located at S30E35-S15E25
lifted off from the solar disc at around 10UT on 19 Mar, with
the motion in SDO 304nm imagery suggesting eastward directed,
however no associated CME was discernible in space based coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed varied between 313/273 km/sec.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked
at 8nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between +4
nT and -5nT. A small isolated coronal hole is visible near the
solar central meridian (GOES SUVI). A slight increase in solar
wind speed may occur in coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11220021
Darwin 2 11120011
Townsville 2 11120011
Learmonth 3 11220020
Alice Springs 2 10220011
Gingin 3 11220021
Canberra - --------
Hobart 3 11220021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00320010
Casey 10 34330022
Mawson 8 21221043
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 12 Unsettled
21 Mar 10 Unsettled
22 Mar 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 19 Mar, with one isolated active period in the
Antarctic. Australian conditions to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels, there is a weak 27 day recurrent geomagnetic pattern
for 20-21 Mar which may increase activity to unsettled levels,
with isolated active periods possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 18
March and is current for 18-20 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19 Mar were near predicted monthly values to
enhanced. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 48500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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