[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:30:53 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 Mar due to two isolated 
low level C class flares from AR2965. Solar region AR2965 (N21W66) 
continued to decay. There are no solar regions of significance 
currently on the solar disc, however a new spotted region at 
S28E22 is showing growth. Region AR2965 may produce further C 
class events before rotating over the western solar limb in about 
two days time. A small faint solar filament located at S30E35-S15E25 
lifted off from the solar disc at around 10UT on 19 Mar, with 
the motion in SDO 304nm imagery suggesting eastward directed, 
however no associated CME was discernible in space based coronagraph 
imagery. The solar wind speed varied between 313/273 km/sec. 
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked 
at 8nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between +4 
nT and -5nT. A small isolated coronal hole is visible near the 
solar central meridian (GOES SUVI). A slight increase in solar 
wind speed may occur in coming days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11220021
      Darwin               2   11120011
      Townsville           2   11120011
      Learmonth            3   11220020
      Alice Springs        2   10220011
      Gingin               3   11220021
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               3   11220021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   00320010
      Casey               10   34330022
      Mawson               8   21221043

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    12    Unsettled
21 Mar    10    Unsettled
22 Mar    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 19 Mar, with one isolated active period in the 
Antarctic. Australian conditions to be at mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels, there is a weak 27 day recurrent geomagnetic pattern 
for 20-21 Mar which may increase activity to unsettled levels, 
with isolated active periods possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 18 
March and is current for 18-20 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 19 Mar were near predicted monthly values to 
enhanced. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    48500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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