[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 24 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 23 Mar with a few weak
C-class flares. The recent two C-class flares (C2.5 and C3.0)
were from the newly numbered Region 2974 (S21E58). Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next three days (24-26 March),
with a chance of more C-class flares. No earth-directed CMEs
were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last
24 hours. The solar wind parameters were near nominal to mildly
elevated levels, speed varied between 360 and 470 km/s. These
mild enhancements were possibly caused by a small equatorial
coronal hole. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength
(Bt) peaked at 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
between -7 nT and 8 nT. Mild enhancements in solar wind speed
are expected to continue today, UT day 24 March, as the coronal
hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22212221
Darwin 5 22211221
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 6 31212221
Alice Springs 6 22212221
Gingin 6 21212321
Canberra 5 21222211
Hobart 6 22222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 11341210
Casey 12 34422221
Mawson 7 23322210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2210 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 5 Quiet
26 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 23 March, with quiet to active periods in the
Antarctic region. Today, UT day 24 March, Australian conditions
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions, in response to the coronal hole effects.
The coronal hole effects are expected to wane from UT day 25
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. Low chance of
shortwave fadeout.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23 Mar were
generally enhanced. Near monthly predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs
are now expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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