[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 10 10:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 114/65 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 09 March. New region
AR2965 (N21E65) has rotated more into view and appears now as
a moderately size region, which at present exhibits a more simple
bipolar magnetic polarity, though with intermediate spots. This
solar region is of interest and will be monitored for any increase
in magnetic complexity and has so far produced only two low level
C1 class solar flares. The other moderately sized region AR2960
(S20W00) remained quiet, exhibits an open configuration as has
lost its intermediate spots. Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low for 10 March, with perhaps an increased chance
of low level M class flaring (ASWAS R1) primarily due to potential
development in AR2965, though at this stage there has been no
general increase in background US GOES satellite xray flux levels,
which is currently low at around the B4 level. No new Earth directed
CMEs were observed on 09 March. On UT day 09 March, the solar
wind speed was steady and varied from 389 to 424km/sec, the peak
total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was 4nT and
the IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +1/-3 nT. Solar
wind conditions are expected to initially gradually decline today,
with solar wind parameters possibly mildly disturbed from mid
10 March associated with a recent erupting solar filament/CME.
Solar 27 day recurrent patterns suggest an increase in solar
wind speed for 12 March, however the equatorial coronal hole
appears much smaller on this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Darwin 3 21111002
Townsville 2 21111001
Learmonth 2 21111001
Alice Springs 3 21112001
Gingin 2 20112000
Canberra 1 20100000
Hobart 3 22112001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 12112100
Casey 9 34222111
Mawson 15 52211115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3200 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 18 Initially quiet to unsettled, chance for isolated
active/minor storm periods second half of UT
day.
11 Mar 12 Unsettled
12 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 7 March and
is current for 10 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 09 March. Active to minor storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled for the first half of UT day 10 March,
with possible brief active to minor storm periods (ASWAS G1)
due to a glancing blow from a recently erupting solar filament
for second half of 10 March. There is an outside chance for a
weak increase in activity late 11 to 12 March from another recently
erupting solar filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for first half of
10 March. Mildly degraded conditions expected second half of
10 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, possible
15% depression late in UT day.
11 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, possible
15% depression early in UT day.
12 Mar 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on 09 March were near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced.
Regional MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to mildly enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions may be
experienced late in the UT day on 10 March and early 11 March,
if anticipated geomagnetic activity from a recently erupting
solar filament eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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