[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 22 issued 2333 UT on 08 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 9 10:33:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 114/65
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 March. The largest
solar region on the disk AR2960 (S20E14) remained flare quiet,
with intermediate spots in this region appearing to have decayed
over the last few days. A small new solar region AR2964 has emerged
at S22W33. Another new region AR2965 has rotated onto the solar
disk at N22E79. Solar activity is expected to be predominately
low for 09 March. A pair of solar filaments were visible in the
northwest solar quadrant in US GONG Halpha imagery. The western
most filament (N25W40) appears to have erupted during the interval
01UT-04UT on 08 March. A northwest coronal mass ejection is visible
in LASCO C2 from around 0430UT. Event modelling shows that the
associated CME will most likely miss the Earth on late 11 March
to early 12 March, there is a possibility of a very weak glancing
blow during this interval. On UT day 08 March, the solar wind
speed ranged decreased from 516-398km/sec, the peak total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength was 4nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. Solar wind conditions are
expected to continue to gradually decline for today, with solar
wind parameters mildly disturbed from mid 10 March associated
with a recent erupting solar filament/CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21000011
Darwin 4 32000012
Townsville 3 22000012
Learmonth 3 31000021
Alice Springs 2 21100011
Gingin 4 31001121
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 3 22011011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 21011010
Casey 11 44311122
Mawson 24 54211164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2312 3242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 18 Initially quiet to unsettled, active levels possible
minor storm period, during second half of UT
day.
11 Mar 12 Unsettled, slight chance for active periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 7 March and
is current for 10 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 08 March. Active to
major storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 March and the first
half of UT day 10 March, with possible active to minor storm
periods due to a glancing blow from a recently erupting solar
filament possible for second half of 10 March. There is an outside
chance for a weak increase in activity late 11 to 12 March from
another erupting solar filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for 9 March. Mildly
degraded conditions expected second half of 10 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, possible
15% depression late in UT day.
11 Mar 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, possible
15% depression early in UT day.
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on 08 March were near predicted monthly values to enhanced. Regional
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
to mildly enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced
late in the UT day on 10 March and early 11 March, if anticipated
geomagnetic activity from a recently erupting solar filament
eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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