[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 07 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 8 10:31:16 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 116/68
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 07 March. The two solar
regions currently of most significance, AR2960 (S20E26) and 2957
(S15W39) both decreased in area. A new solar region AR2963 emerged
at S19W10. Solar activity is expected to be predominately low,
with a slight chance of an isolated low level M class flare (ASWAS
R1 Class). A solar filament erupted from the north-west solar
quadrant around 23UT on 06 March. Modelling of this filament
shows a rather slow eruption, with a glancing blow arriving at
the Earth around 15UT on 10 March. On UT day 07 March, the solar
wind speed varied from 536 to 429km/sec with an overall declining
trend as coronal hole wind stream effects wane. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was 5 nT and the
IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +2/-5 nT. Solar wind
conditions are expected to continue to gradually decline for
the next two days, with solar wind parameters disturbed on 10
March associated with erupting solar filament.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21123221
Darwin 6 21123221
Townsville 7 21123231
Learmonth 10 21124332
Alice Springs 6 21123221
Gingin 8 21123331
Canberra 4 11013220
Hobart 8 12124221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 22134431
Casey 14 34423222
Mawson 24 54323444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 4243 4122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 12 Unsettled
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 18 Initially quiet, then becoming active with isolated
minor storm periods possible second half of the
UT day.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 7 March and
is current for 10 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to active on UT day 07 March. Active to minor
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. These mildly enhanced
geomagnetic conditions are due to a coronal hole wind stream.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 08-09 March and first half of 10 March, with possible active
to minor storm periods due to a glancing blow from a recently
erupting solar filament possible for second half of 10 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for 8 nd 9 March.
Mildly degraded conditions expected second half of 10 March.
An isolated minor fadeout is possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values possibly depressed
10-15% late in UT day.
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on 07 Mar were near predicted monthly values to enhanced. Regional
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced late
in the UT day on 10 March if anticipated geomagnetic activity
from a recently erupting solar filament eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 563000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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