[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 7 10:31:11 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 06 Mar with several
C-class flares, mostly from region 2962(27E43). There are currently
five numbered regions on the visible disc. Region 2962, the most
active and the largest on the visible disk, showed further development
over the period. Region 2960 (S19E31),the second largest also
showed further development but remained quiet while region 2957
(S14W26) decreased in area but retained its magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of moderate
activity on UT days 07-09 Mar. Modelling of the 05/1736 UT CME
confirmed no Earth directed component. H-alpha imagery observed
several small filament eruptions. No clear CMEs with earth directed
component were present. However, further analysis will be conducted.
On UT day 06 Mar, the solar wind speed remained enhanced due
to continued coronal hole effects, decreasing in general, currently
around 500 Km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) strength was 9 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz)
range was +3/-7 nT, mostly south. Solar wind conditions are expected
to remain enhanced on 07-08 Mar due to coronal hole effects and
possible mild CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 32334121
Darwin 9 32333111
Townsville 12 33334121
Learmonth 13 33334122
Alice Springs 11 32334111
Gingin 14 42334222
Canberra 6 32223010
Hobart 16 33345121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 29 33466221
Casey 23 46433222
Mawson 40 65533264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25 3124 5445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
08 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
09 Mar 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 06 Mar with an isolated minor storm
period at Hobart station due to continued influence from coronal
hole. Major storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 07-08 Mar
with possible active periods due to coronal hole effects and
possible mild CME impacts. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
are expected for 09 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 07-09 Mar.
There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 6
March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on 06 Mar were near predicted monthly
values to enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at at some stations
and night spread F at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 07-09 Mar. Possible degradations in propagation
conditions on 07-08. There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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