[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 05 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 6 10:31:38 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 05 Mar with several
C-class flares. The largest flare was a C2.7 flare at 05/2022UT
from newly numbered region 2962(N26E55). There are currently
six numbered regions on the visible disc. Regions 2960 (S19E52)
and 2957(S15W11), the largest and most complex, showed further
development but remained relatively quiet. Solar activity is
expected to be low with a chance of moderate activity on UT days
06-08 Mar. SDO imagery observed a filament lifting off SW quadrant
near S20W35 around 05/1456UT. In addition some very small filament
segments may have also erupted in the solar SE quadrant starting
05/0041-0327UT but these are not considered to be geoeffective.
A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at around 05/1736UT, unlikely
to have an earth directed component. However, further analysis
will be conducted when more imagery becomes available. The solar
wind speed range on 05 Mar was 380-560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength was 12 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) range was +6/-11 nT. Solar wind conditions are
expected to remain enhanced on 06-08 Mar due to coronal hole
effects and mild CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 21233334
Darwin 13 21233334
Townsville 14 21234334
Learmonth 13 21233334
Alice Springs 13 21233334
Gingin 15 21134344
Canberra 11 31133233
Hobart 18 22244344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 36 12256555
Casey 26 35543334
Mawson 43 53344457
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 25 Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods
07 Mar 15 Quiet to active
08 Mar 4 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 05 Mar due to continued influence from
coronal hole. Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to active on 06-08 Mar with
possible minor storm periods due to coronal hole effects and
possible mild CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 06-08 Mar.
There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on 05 Mar were near predicted monthly values to enhanced. Sporadic
E was observed at at some stations. Possible degradations in
propagation conditions on 06-08 due to increased geomagnetic
activity. There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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