[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 04 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 5 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 117/69 117/69
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 04 Mar with several
low level C-class flares. There are currently six numbered regions
on the visible disc. Regions 2960 and 2957, the largest and most
complex, showed increase in area and magnetic complexity. These
regions are currently classified as a Beta magnetic class. All
other regions are either stable of declining. Solar activity
is expected to be low with a chance of moderate activity on UT
days 05-07 Mar. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at around
04/0136 UT, believed to be associated with an erupting solar
filament located at N15E10 visible in GONG Halpha imagery around
03/2209UT. This CME may brush earth late on 07 Mar. In addition,
there was another filament at S20W35 around 04/1258UT in SDO
imagery. There is no evidence of a CME in the available coronagraph
imagery. This event will be assessed further as more imagery
becomes available. The solar wind speed range on 04 Mar was 400-480
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength
was 9 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +6/-5
nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be mildly elevated
on 05-07 Mar due to coronal hole effects. In addition, there
may be further enhancements due to mild CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22132222
Darwin 7 32122222
Townsville 9 32232222
Learmonth 10 23232232
Alice Springs 6 22122222
Gingin 8 22132232
Canberra 5 21121221
Hobart 8 22232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 12153221
Casey 20 35532232
Mawson 36 54332556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 12 Quiet to active
06 Mar 15 Quiet to active
07 Mar 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 04 Mar. Quiet to minor storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled on 05-07 Mar with possible active periods
due to coronal hole effects and possible mild CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 05 Mar.
There is the possibility of some degradations on 06-07 Mar. There
is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 3
March and is current for 3-5 Mar. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on 04 Mar were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at at some
stations. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to about 20% enhanced on 05 Mar. Possible degradations in propagation
conditions on 06-07 Mar. There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 84800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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