[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 03 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 4 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 111/62 110/60 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 03 Mar with two low
level C flares, the largest a C3.4 from region 2958 and the other
from the northeast limb. Solar activity is expected to be low
with a small chance of moderate activity on UT days 04-06 Mar.
Regions 2954 (N20W74), 2955 (N15W56) and 2957 (S15E10) are stable
and quiet. Region 2956 is a now plage and 2958 (N20E13) continues
to decay. There are three newly numbered regions, 2959 (S19E21),
2960 (S20E76) and 2961 (S13E02). Region 2941 (N25) which produced
low level M-flares last rotation is due to return around this
time. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed on 03 Mar. The
CME associated with the M2 flare on 02 Mar is expected to graze
Earth in the second half of 06 Mar. The northwest CME on 02 Mar
may also clip Earth late on 06 Mar. The solar wind speed range
on 03 Mar was 358-432 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) strength was 8 nT and the IMF north-south component
(Bz) range was +6/-5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to
be mildly elevated on 04-06 Mar due to coronal hole effects and
possible CME interactions on 06 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11001222
Darwin 3 11001222
Townsville 3 11001222
Learmonth 3 11001222
Alice Springs 3 01001222
Gingin 3 10001222
Canberra 1 0-001101
Hobart 5 11001214
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01001111
Casey 11 24312223
Mawson 20 33212246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1102 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 12 Quiet to Active
06 Mar 14 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 03 Mar with a late active period at Hobart. Quiet
to major storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04-06 Mar
with possible isolated active periods from late on 04 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 04-06 Mar.
There is the possibility of some degradations on 06 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 03
March and is current for 03-05 Mar. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on 03 Mar were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at Perth
20-21 UT and night spread F at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to about 20% enhanced on 04-06
Mar. Possible degradations in propagation conditions on 06 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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