[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 3 10:31:06 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1740UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 02 Mar with an
M2.0 flare at 1739 UT from region 2958; region 2957 produced
C flares. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance
of moderate activity on UT days, 03-05 Mar. Regions 2954 (N19W52)
and 2955 (N15W41) are stable and quiet, regions 2956 (N27W19)
and 2958 (N17E31) have decayed and 2957 (S14E20, Eai/beta-gamma)
has developed along with emergence of spots to its west. Region
2941 (N25) which produced low level M-flares last rotation is
due to return around 03 Mar. There was a CME associated with
the abovementioned M2 flare and another to the northwest from
a developing spot group near N25W20 that will be analysed. The
solar wind speed range on 02 Mar was 424-520 km/s, declining
as coronal hole wind stream effects waned. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength was 3 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near background levels for most of 03 Mar. Solar wind conditions
are may become elevated late on 03 Mar or 04 Mar as Earth enters
another coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11110002
Learmonth 2 21010001
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Gingin 2 21010002
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11120001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01120000
Casey 8 24321111
Mawson 11 32121144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1122 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 9 Mostly quiet. Chance of increased activity late
04 Mar 12 Quiet to active
05 Mar 10 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 02 Mar. Quiet to active levels were observed
in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet on 03 Mar. There is a chance of unsettled to isolated active
periods with the onset of coronal hole effects possibly beginning
late on 03 Mar or on 04 Mar. Quiet to active conditions are expected
04-05 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition are expected over the next
three days. Possible mild degradations on 04 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Lower latitude Australian regional maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on 02 Mar were mostly enhanced compared to predicted monthly
values with 15% depressions at Townsville overnight. Mid-latitude
eastern Australian MUFs were about 15% depressed during the day
and early evening then near predicted monthly values. Learmonth
and Perth MUFs were enhanced until about 1300 UT then near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart overnight and
sporadic E at Canberra 02-06 UT. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to about 20% enhanced on 03-05 Mar.
There may be some mild depressions at mid-latitudes on 04 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 343000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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