[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 01 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 2 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 Mar. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days, 02-04
Mar. The five visible spot regions are mostly stable with regions
2957 (S14E32) and 2958 (N17E41) showing some growth and both
currently Dso/beta groups. There have been no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available images. The solar wind speed range
on 01 Mar was 459-557 km/s as coronal hole wind stream effects
continued. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
strength was 6 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) range
was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated
on 02 Mar and decline to nearer background levels on 03 Mar.
Solar wind conditions are likely to become elevated late on 03
Mar or 04 Mar as Earth enters another coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12222211
Darwin 5 12222112
Townsville 5 11222212
Learmonth 6 21222212
Alice Springs 5 12222211
Gingin 7 22232212
Canberra 2 01112110
Hobart 6 12322111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 10 12433211
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 18 43333252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2202 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 9 Mostly quiet. Chance of increased activity late
04 Mar 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 01 Mar. Quiet to minor storm levels were
observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet with some unsettled levels on 02-03 Mar. There
is a chance of isolated active periods with the onset of coronal
hole effects possibly beginning late on 03 Mar or on 04 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition are expected over the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near the predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values
on 01 Mar. Northern Australian MUFs were enhanced. Mid-latitude
MUFs near predicted with enhancements between 07-12 UT. Sporadic
E was observed at Hobart 01-03, 12-18 UT. Similar MUF conditions
are expected on 02-04 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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