[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 22 issued 2333 UT on 10 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:33:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 March. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed. A ribbon of emission in US GONG
Halpha images from Cerro Tolo observatory in Chile was observed
at around 20UT on 10 March. The emission appears to be from the
background solar chromosphere, possibly along the neutral line
near now decayed AR2962 and spanned N30W05 to N17W20. A slow
rise/fall C2 xray flare was observed in association with this
event. Due to the ribbon structure it is possible a very weak
proton enhancement (well below ASWAS S1) may follow this event.
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low for 11 March,
with a chance of low level M class flaring (ASWAS R1). Solar
region AR2695 (N21E52) has grown and is now a reasonably large
solar region, with intermediate spots, however this region remains
relatively magnetically simple and is relatively quiet. The next
largest solar region AR2960 (S20W13) was quiet and is in decay.
New solar region AR2966 (S26W55) has intermediate spots but currently
exhibits a bipole magnetic configuration. On UT day 10 March,
the solar wind speed varied from 311 to 498km/sec, the peak total
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was 18nT and the
IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +16/-9nT. The solar
wind speed initially declined until around 13:50UT, then gradually
increased. The solar wind parameters show a small discontinuity
at around 16:30UT, with Bt and Bz both then increasing to peak
values for the day with Bz strongly positive. The solar wind
speed did not increase significantly after this discontinuity.
After 21UT solar wind speed and magnetic field strength both
began to decline. The SDO images show weak fields and small coronal
holes near the centre of the solar disk and also in the north
east solar quadrant. Solar wind may increase slightly over coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 11113233
Darwin 7 21113223
Townsville 8 11113233
Learmonth 9 12123233
Alice Springs 7 11113223
Gingin 8 21113233
Canberra 4 01103121
Hobart 8 11213332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 11235331
Casey 14 34422232
Mawson 21 43223552
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 12 Unsettled
12 Mar 10 Unsettled
13 Mar 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 10 March. Active to minor storm levels were observed
in Antarctica. The expected increase in geomagnetic activity
second half of the UT day 10 March has failed to eventuate. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be unsettled for today. Occasional
isolated active periods may be possibly be experienced in coming
days due to a weak coronal hole wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected second half of 10 March
failed to eventuate, normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 75 Near to 15% predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on 10 March were near predicted monthly values to 15-50% enhanced.
Regional MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions expected late
10 March have failed to eventuate.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 91100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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