[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 26 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jun was at the R0 level,
with a single low-level C-class flare, produced by AR3040 (S14E17,
beta). There are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk, being AR3038 (N16W73, beta) and AR3040, the latter
of which has shown some growth. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 26-28 Jun, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
A faint northwest CME was observed from 25/1000UT in both STEREO-A
and LASCO C2, which may be associated with observed coronal dimming
visible in GOES SUVI from 25/0300UT. Model runs indicate that
this CME is not geoeffective. A large filament was observed from
25/1300UT lifting off the solar disk in the northeast quadrant,
near N60E50, visible in GOES SUVI and H-alpha imagery. The solar
wind speed on 25-Jun was elevated due to coronal hole effects,
ranging between 400-530 km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10
to -13 nT. Bz has been mostly southward since 25/1200UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced over
26-28 Jun, due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 22222233
Darwin 8 22221133
Learmonth 9 22222233
Alice Springs 8 22222133
Gingin 8 22122233
Canberra 9 22112243
Hobart 10 21222243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 19 11224553
Casey 16 32233344
Mawson 57 55343358
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3000 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 20 G0, chance of G1
27 Jun 10 G0, slight chance of G1
28 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 25 June and
is current for 26-27 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jun. G0 to G1 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are generally
expected over 26-28 Jun in the Australian region, with a chance
of G1 conditions on 26-Jun, and a slight chance of G1 conditions
on 27-Jun, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 26-28 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions possible during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. There is a chance
of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 26-28 Jun, with mild degradations
possible during local night hours. There is a chance of shortwave
fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 97500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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