[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several low-level C-class flares. There are currently two
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3038 (N16W86,
beta) is soon to rotate off the solar disk. AR3040 (S14E04, beta)
was responsible for most of the flaring activity. Both regions
appear to be stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the
R0 level over 27-29 Jun, with a chance of R1. Several CMEs were
observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective. A large
filament was observed at 26/0121UT lifting off the solar disk
in the southwest quadrant, near S50W50, visible in GOES SUVI
and H-alpha imagery. This may be associated with a south-directed
CME observed in LASCO C2 from 26/0336UT. Analysis of the coronagraph
imagery indicates that this CME is a farside event, and model
runs indicate that it is not geoeffective. A disappearing filament
located near N25W45 was observed in both GOES SUVI and H-alpha
imagery from 26/1038UT. An associated northwest CME is visible
in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 from 26/1136UT, and model runs indicate
that this is not geoeffective. A west-directed CME is visible
in STEREO-A imagery from 26/1838UT. Further analysis will be
conducted to determine if there is an Earth-directed component
when more coronagraph imagery becomes available. The solar wind
on UT day 26-Jun was elevated due to ongoing coronal hole effects,
ranging between 425-760 km/s, and is currently at around 630
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -9 nT. Bz was intermittently southward during the UT day.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 27-29
Jun, with a declining trend towards the end of the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: G1
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 32254232
Darwin 13 32244222
Learmonth 19 32255232
Alice Springs 15 32254222
Gingin 23 42255342
Canberra 13 32144232
Hobart 17 32154332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 34 31176332
Casey 24 33343363
Mawson 64 65545576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 3221 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 15 G0, slight chance of G1
28 Jun 8 G0
29 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 25 June and
is current for 26-27 Jun. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 26-Jun, in response to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are generally expected
over 27-29 Jun in the Australian region, with a slight chance
of G1 conditions on 27-Jun, due to ongoing coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jun. There is a chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 27-29 Jun. There is a chance
of shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 90800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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