[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 25 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jun was at the R0 level,
with two low-level C-class flares. AR3038 (N16W59, beta-gamma)
was responsible for majority of the flaring activity, but has
shown some decay. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, with AR3038 and AR3040 (S14E30, beta-gamma)
being the most complex regions. The two remaining regions are
stable, and will soon rotate over the western limb, within the
next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 25-27 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed in GOES
SUVI and H-alpha imagery from 24/0800UT near N25W25, which almost
completely disappeared. A further eruption of its remnants occurred
from 24/1723UT near N20W30. Two narrow CMEs are visible in STEREO-A
imagery from 24/1809UT directed to the southwest, and 24/1853UT
directed to the northwest. The northwest CME is the likely result
of the earlier filament eruption, and further analysis will be
conducted to determine if there is an Earth-directed component
when more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on
24-Jun ranged between 400-540 km/s, and is currently near 425
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -7 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 1722-2300UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced over 25-27
Jun due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 20000122
Darwin 3 20000122
Learmonth 6 30000233
Alice Springs 3 20000122
Gingin 5 20000133
Canberra 3 20000122
Hobart 3 20000122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 10000022
Casey 7 32100133
Mawson 19 52100155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3322 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 13 G0
26 Jun 13 G0
27 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Jun. G0 conditions were generally observed
in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 observed at Mawson.
G0 conditions are expected over 25-27 Jun in the Australian region,
with mild disturbances of the geomagnetic field expected due
to coronal hole wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 25-27 Jun. There is a chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 23
June and is current for 23-25 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-Jun were mostly near monthly predicted values.
Mild ionospheric depressions were observed during local night
hours at most sites. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 25-27 Jun, with mild degradations possible during local
night hours. There is a chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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