[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jul was at the R0 level,
with a C8.5 flare from AR3060 (N14W89) which has since decayed
as it approached the northwest limb. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3059 (S09W77, alpha)
appears stable and will soon rotate over the western limb. A
new sunspot region, AR3067 (N20E68, beta), has recently rotated
onto the solar disk and appears to be decaying. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Jul. A narrow west-directed
CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 26/1623UT, likely associated with the C8.5 flare
from AR3060. Model runs indicate this CME does not contain an
Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on 26-Jul ranged from 450 to 375
km/s and is currently near 405 km/s with a declining trend. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline to near background
levels over 27-29 Jul due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 32022001
Darwin 3 22121001
Learmonth 5 32121002
Alice Springs 3 31021001
Gingin 5 32012102
Canberra 3 31012001
Hobart 2 21012001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 21013100
Casey 9 43221112
Mawson 30 65132026
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3200 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 5 G0
28 Jul 5 G0
29 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1-G2 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 27-29 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at several
locations during local night hours. MUFs are generally expected
to be near monthly predicted values over 27-29 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 97400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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