[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 26 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3065 (S18W35,
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. A new sunspot region,
AR3066 (S14E19, beta), recently appeared on the solar disk and
has shown spot development. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 26-28 Jul. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A west-directed CME was observed, visible
in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 25/0838UT.
Model runs indicate this CME does not contain an Earth-directed
component. The solar wind speed on 25-Jul ranged from 490 to
415 km/s and is currently near 445 km/s with a declining trend.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline to
near background levels over 26-28 Jul due to waning coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Darwin 2 21100011
Learmonth 2 21010011
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Gingin 2 21100021
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 1 21000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 6 23211122
Mawson 18 54221125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3322 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 7 G0
27 Jul 5 G0
28 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 26-28 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 26-28 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at several
locations during local night hours. MUFs are generally expected
to be near monthly predicted values over 26-28 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 238000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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