[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 28 09:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 96/43 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jul was at the R0 level,
with one C3.5 flare. There are currently four numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. All are either stable or in decay.
A new, unnumbered, region (S16E76, beta) is currently rotating
onto the solar disk and was responsible for the C-class flare.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 28-30 Jul.
A western CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery at 27/1938UT,
further analysis will be performed when more imagery is available.
Several other CMEs were observed, none are considered to be geoeffective.
A pair of disappearing filaments are visible from 27/1622UT around
S40W10, no associated CME is visible in available imagery, further
analysis will be performed when more imagery is available. The
solar wind speed declined on 27-Jul, ranging from 377 to 502
km/s, and is currently near 410 km/s with a declining trend.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline over
28-Jul, with a possibility of a minor increase over 29-30 Jul
due to high speed wind effects from a small equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin 5 22211211
Learmonth 7 23222221
Alice Springs 7 23212212
Gingin 6 22212222
Canberra 4 12112111
Hobart 4 12212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 12113111
Casey 9 33322112
Mawson 28 45523245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3301 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 7 G0
29 Jul 10 G0
30 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-30 Jul, with mildly
disturbed conditions possible on 29-30 Jul due to the effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 28-30 Jul, with the possibility of mildly degraded conditions
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity over 29-30
Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed in the northern
Australian region during local night hours. MUFs are generally
expected to be near monthly predicted values over 28-30 Jul,
with the possibility of mildly degraded conditions due to a possible
increase in geomagnetic activity over 29-30 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 82400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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