[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3056 (S19W68, beta)
appears unstable. AR3057 (N15W53, beta) has shown decay in its
trailer spots, as has AR3060 (N14E04, beta). AR3061 (N24W79,
alpha) will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3064 (N11E31,
beta) is unstable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Despite the large number of sunspot regions, solar
activity has been generally low. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Jul. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. Two coronal holes are now
in the western hemisphere and are expected to influence the solar
wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on 20-Jul
ranged from 370 to 450km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT
and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range was +7 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 21-23 Jul
due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12011121
Darwin 3 12111111
Learmonth 4 12111112
Alice Springs 3 12011121
Gingin 4 12011122
Canberra 3 11011121
Hobart 3 11011121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 22033011
Casey 6 23221121
Mawson 11 43222231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25 3443 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 10 G0
22 Jul 18 G0, chance of G1
23 Jul 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 20 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 20-Jul. An
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected from 22-Jul due
to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 21-Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to
high latitudes over 22-23 Jul due to the onset of coronal hole
high speed wind streams. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 18
July and is current for 18-21 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20-Jul were near monthly predicted values. Spread-F
was observed across the Australian region during local night
hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near monthly predicted
values over 21-23 Jul, mild degradations are possible from 22-Jul
due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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