[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 22 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3060 (N14W09, beta)
has shown spot development and was responsible for the largest
C-class flare. A new region, AR3065 (S18E18, beta) has appeared
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Despite the large number of sunspot regions, solar
activity has been generally low. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Jul. Several CMEs were observed.
A very faint halo CME is visible in LASCO C2 from 21/0148UT,
possibly due to a small filament eruption visible in H-Alpha
from 21/0109UT associated with AR3060 at N14E02. It is impossible
to confirm that this is a front-side event due to the absence
of STEREO-A coronagraph imagery over the required times. If the
CME is earth directed, modelling indicates an impact early on
UT day 23-Jul, however due to the faintness of the CME and the
small size of the erupting filament this is expected to be a
very weak impact. A more obvious southeastward CME visible in
LASCO C2 from 21/0136UT is considered to be an event on the limb/farside
and is unlikely to have a geoeffective component. The solar wind
speed on 21-Jul ranged from 357 to 466km/s, and is currently
near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 22 nT and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range
was +19 to -17 nT. This indicates that The Earth is now under
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from two coronal
holes in the western hemisphere. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 22-24 Jul due to coronal hole high speed wind
streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 11222533
Darwin 9 11222432
Learmonth 14 11222543
Alice Springs 13 11222533
Gingin 15 11132543
Canberra 9 00122433
Hobart 12 10131533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 18 00043632
Casey 13 12223434
Mawson 48 33234477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3301 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 16 G0-G1
23 Jul 14 G0, chance of G1
24 Jul 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 20 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a period
of G1 were observed in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jul
in response to a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated periods of
G2 and G3 were observed in the Antarctic region on UT day 21-Jul.
G0 to G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 22-Jul
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind effects. G0, with
a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-24
Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects and the chance of a weak
impact from a CME first observed on 21-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are expected at mid
to high latitudes on 22-Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible
for middle to high latitudes over 23-24 Jul due to the ongoing
effect of coronal hole high speed wind streams and the chance
of a weak impact from a CME first observed on 21-Jul. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed across the
Australian region during local night hours. Significantly enhanced
HF conditions were observed at Cocos Islands over local day.
MUFs are generally expected to be near monthly predicted values
over 22-24 Jul, mild degradations are possible over 22-24 Jul
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 74100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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