[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 20 09:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk and two unnumbered
sunspot regions. AR3057 (N15W39, beta) has shown growth in its
trailer spots. AR3059 (S09E17, beta) has shown decay in its trailer
spots. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Two new
sunspot regions have appeared on the solar disk at N07E27 (beta)
and N05E45 (beta). A new sunspot region AR3062 (S26E63, alpha)
has recently rotated onto the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22 Jul. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. Two coronal holes are currently
crossing the central meridian and are expected to influence the
solar wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on
19-Jul ranged from 435 to 525 km/s, and is currently near 445
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range was
+16 to -11 nT. An ongoing period of southward IMF conditions
began at 19/0415UT, likely due to the arrival of a CME first
observed on 15-Jul. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 20-22 Jul due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind
streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 19 34344333
Darwin 17 34334233
Learmonth 25 34345344
Alice Springs 17 34334233
Gingin 23 33345344
Canberra 13 23333233
Hobart 17 23344333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 42 13665553
Casey 20 45333224
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1112 3134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 16 G0, slight chance of G1
21 Jul 10 G0
22 Jul 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 17 July and
is current for 19-20 Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region over UT day 19-Jul, with isolated
periods of G1 at Learmonth and Gingin. G0-G2 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0, with a slight chance of
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 20-Jul due to the ongoing
effects of a CME impact, from a CME first observed on 15-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-22 Jul, with a
chance of G1 from the 22-Jul due to the onset of coronal hole
high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during 20-22 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle
to high latitudes on 20-Jul due to the ongoing effects of a CME
impact, and 22-Jul due to the onset of coronal hole high speed
wind streams. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 18
July and is current for 18-21 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Jul were near monthly predicted values, with
moderate enhancements of 20-30% observed at most Australian sites.
Sporadic E was observed at Cocos Islands. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
monthly predicted values over 20-22 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 70400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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