[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 19 09:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3057 (N15E26, beta-delta) has increased
in magnetic complexity. AR3060 (N14E31, beta) has shown a slight
increase in spot number. A new currently unnumbered region (N10E35,
beta) has emerged. All other regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
19-21 Jul, with a slight chance of R2. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. A filament was observed lifting off the solar disk
in H-alpha and SDO imagery from 18/1121UT on the southwest quadrant.
A resulting CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from
18/1736UT, but model runs indicate it is not geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on 18-Jul ranged from 349 to 516 km/s, and is
currently near 480 km/s. A weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 18/2035UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz)
range was +10 to -11 nT. Bz was southward between 0925-1135UT
and 1840-2050UT on 18-Jul. The solar wind speed is expected to
be mildly enhanced over 19-21 Jul due to an anticipated CME impact,
from a CME first observed on 15-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 01232022
Darwin 5 12222022
Learmonth 6 01133022
Alice Springs 4 01222022
Gingin 6 01232013
Canberra 4 01132012
Hobart 4 01132012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 00153002
Casey 6 12221123
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 20 G0. chance of G1
20 Jul 16 G0, slight chance of G1
21 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 17 July and
is current for 19-20 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region over UT day 18-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
G1 at Macquarie Island. G0, with a chance of G1 conditions are
expected on 19-Jul due to the impact of a CME first observed
on 15-Jul, followed by mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions
on 20-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 21-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during 19-21 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle
to high latitudes from late 19-Jul due to the anticipated impact
of a CME first observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 18
July and is current for 18-21 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18-Jul were near monthly predicted values, with
mild enhancements observed at most Australian sites. Sporadic
E was observed in the Cocos Islands and Brisbane. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values over 19-21 Jul, with mildly
degraded HF conditions possible for southern Australian regions
from late 19-Jul due to the anticipated impact of a CME first
observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 73900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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