[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3056 (S16W27, beta), AR3057
(N18W06, beta) and AR3061 (N23W38, beta) are unstable. All other
regions are stable or decaying. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0 - R1 levels over 18-20 Jul. No geoeffective CMEs have
been observed. There is an active filament, approximately 30
degrees in length, centered around S15W50. The solar wind speed
on 17-Jul ranged from 368 to 430 km/s and is currently near 410
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
is 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to
-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 18-Jul and early 19-Jul, then to increase by late
19-Jul due to the impact of a CME first observed on 15-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01110000
Darwin 1 01110001
Learmonth 0 00010000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 01110011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2332 2013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 7 G0
19 Jul 18 G0, chance of G1
20 Jul 16 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 17 July and
is current for 19-20 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 17-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-Jul. G0, with
a chance of G1 conditions are expected on 19-Jul due to the impact
of a CME first observed on 15-Jul. Unsettled to active G0 conditions
are expected on 20-Jul as the effects of the CME abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 18-19 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle
to high latitudes on 19-20 Jul due to the impact of a CME first
observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed across the
Australian region during local night. Sporadic E was observed
in the Cocos islands. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values over 18-19 Jul. Mildly degraded HF conditions for southern
Australian region are possible on 19-20 Jul due to the impact
of a CME first observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 494000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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