[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 14 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several low-level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3055 (S16W23, beta)
is the largest sunspot group and appears stable. AR3053 (N13W33,
beta) has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level, with a slight chance of R2 over 14-16 Jul. A narrow west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from
13/1325UT and is currently considered to be a farside event (not
geoeffective). No other significant CMEs have been observed.
There are currently several large filaments on the solar disk,
but all appear to be stable. An equatorial coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind
speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on 13-Jul ranged
between 450-565 km/s and is currently near 560 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated due to ongoing coronal
hole effects with a declining trend to near background levels
over 14-16 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111210
Darwin 3 12111111
Learmonth 4 12221210
Alice Springs 2 11111100
Gingin 3 12111210
Canberra 3 11112200
Hobart 2 11012200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00013200
Casey 6 23321110
Mawson 10 33332220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 2333 5242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 10 G0
15 Jul 8 G0
16 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 13-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-16 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 14-16 Jul. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high
latitudes over 14-16 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 11
July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Jul were generally near monthly predicted
values. Spread-F was observed in Canberra and Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 14-16 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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