[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares, the largest being C7.6. There are
currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3035
(N13W17, beta-gamma) has increased in magnetic complexity and
in spot number. AR3055 (S16W07, beta) has had intermediate spot
development. All other sunspot regions are stable or decaying.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 13-15
Jul, with a chance of R2. No CMEs have been observed. The whole
disk M-class flare potential is currently high, but we have yet
to observe any significant flare activity. There are currently
several large filaments on the solar disk, but all appear to
be stable. The solar wind speed on 12-Jul ranged between 315
- 526 km/s, with an increasing trend from 12/0530UT and is currently
near 520 km/s. The solar wind speed increase is likely due to
the combination of a weak CME impact first observed 08-Jul and
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +13 to -14nT. Bz was intermittently southward
for several sustained periods over the past 24 hours. The solar
wind is expected to be moderate over 13-Jul, but to gradually
decrease to background levels over 14-15 Jul due to the effects
of the coronal holes and weak CME impact abating.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: G0 - G1
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 22334431
Darwin 13 22234431
Learmonth 19 33334531
Alice Springs 13 22234431
Gingin 15 23334431
Canberra 15 12335331
Hobart 15 22335330
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 33 12456551
Casey 11 23323331
Mawson 50 64554373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2112 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 15 G0, slight chance of G1
14 Jul 10 G0
15 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Australian
region, with an isolated period of G1 observed in Canberra, Hobart
and Learmonth. G1 conditions were likely caused by the combined
effects of coronal holes and a weak CME impact first observed
on 08-Jul. G0 to G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region with an isolated period of G3 in Mawson. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at G0 conditions over 13-15 Jul, as the effects
from coronal hole high speed wind streams and a weak CME impact
abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 13-15 Jul. Mildly degraded conditions possible in mid-high
latitudes over 13-14 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 11
July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Jul were generally unexpectedly enhanced
by 15% in most sites. Spread-F was observed in most southern
Australian sites during local day. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 13-15 Jul, with mildly degraded
conditions possible for the southern Australia region. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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