[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 15 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0431UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.9 2148UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jul was at the R1 level,
with two M-class flares (M1.2 at 14/0431UT and an M2.9 at 14/2148UT)
produced by a new region that has recently rotated onto the solar
disk, AR3058 (N12E72, beta). There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3053 (N13W45, beta) has
shown growth in its trailer spots and AR3056 (S19E14, beta) has
shown spot development. AR3055 (S16W35, beta) is the largest
sunspot group and is showing signs of decay in its trailer spots,
as is AR3057 (N15E28, beta). Solar activity is expected to be
at the R1 level over 15-17 Jul, with a chance of R2. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective
at this stage. A northeast CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A
imagery from 14/0423UT. Model runs indicate this is a farside
event and is not geoeffective. An erupting prominence was observed
on the southeast limb in GOES SUVI imagery from 14/1100UT and
a subsequent CME in LASCO C2 from 14/1524UT. This is currently
considered a farside event, but further analysis will be conducted
to determine whether there is an Earth-directed component when
additional STEREO-A coronagraph imagery becomes available. A
partial filament eruption was observed in the southeast quadrant
near S40W10 from 14/1800UT. The solar wind speed on 14-Jul ranged
between 500-585 km/s and is currently near 575 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated due to ongoing coronal
hole effects with a declining trend to near background levels
over 15-17 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Darwin 1 11100101
Learmonth 1 10100100
Alice Springs 1 01100100
Gingin 1 10000200
Canberra 2 11200101
Hobart 1 11000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 5 22211211
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 8 G0
16 Jul 8 G0
17 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 14-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-17 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 15-17 Jul. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high
latitudes over 15-17 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 14
July and is current for 15-17 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul were near monthly predicted values. Spread-F
was observed in Canberra and Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17
Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 278000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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