[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 6 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C9.8 from
AR3047 (S20W32, beta) at 05/0407UT. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3051 (N26E15, beta) has
shown spot growth. Two new sunspot regions have emerged from
the eastern limb, numbered AR3052 (N15E53, beta) which has shown
spot growth; and AR3053 (N13E75, beta). All other sunspot regions
are either stable or decaying. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed in the last 24 hours. Two CMEs were observed, but
neither have an obvious on-disk source. The first was a southeast
CME visible from 04/1325UT in LASCO C2, and the second was a
westward CME visible from 04/2112UT in LASCO C2. Model runs indicate
that the latter is a farside event, and neither CME is considered
geoeffective. An isolated coronal hole seen in the northern hemisphere
has continued to decrease in latitudinal extent. The solar wind
speed on 05-Jul was at near background levels with a declining
trend, and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase over 06-08 Jul due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00001000
Darwin 1 11100000
Learmonth 0 00001000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10001000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 12101000
Mawson 4 22210112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25 3543 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 16 G0, slight chance of G1
07 Jul 12 G0, slight chance of G1
08 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and
is current for 6-8 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian region
over 06-08 Jul, with a slight chance of G1 from 06-Jul due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 06-08 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for mid
to high latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
induced geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 5
July and is current for 5-7 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 05-Jul were near predicted monthly values, with mild
depressions observed at some sites during local night hours.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Jul,
with degraded conditions possible for the southern Australian
region due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 93100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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