[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 106/55 106/55 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jul was at the R0 level,
with three C-class flares produced by AR3050 (N17E29, beta),
the largest of which was a C5.1 at 04/1333UT. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, the most complex
of which is AR3047 (S20W19, gamma), which was shown some growth.
AR3051 (N26E28, beta) has also exhibited growth, but all other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A new unnumbered
region (N15E70, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar disk,
and is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 05-07 Jul, with a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
An isolated coronal hole in the northern hemisphere currently
extends from (approximately) E10 to W35, and is decreasing in
latitudinal extent. The solar wind speed on 04-Jul was slightly
elevated due to the impact of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun,
with a weak 11 nT shock observed at 04/1421UT. The solar wind
speed ranged between 340-485 km/s, and is currently near 430
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 20 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+18 to -13 nT. Bz was southward for two distinct periods, between
0041-0408UT and 1405-1910UT respectively. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain slightly elevated over 05-07 Jul, with
further enhancements expected from 06-Jul due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 34343332
Darwin 15 34342322
Learmonth 22 34353433
Alice Springs 15 34333332
Gingin 15 33333---
Canberra 16 24334332
Hobart 15 24234323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 26 26335432
Casey 13 33232333
Mawson 47 55531475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3012 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 10 G0
06 Jul 16 G0, chance of G1
07 Jul 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and
is current for 6-8 Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Jul, due to the arrival
of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun. G0-G3 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
in the Australian region over 05-07 Jul, with a chance of G1
from 06-Jul due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 05-07 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible from 06-Jul
for mid to high latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jul were
near predicted monthly values, with depressions of 15-30% observed
at some sites due to CME impacts. Spread-F observed during local
night hours at Darwin, Brisbane and Canberra, and frequent sporadic-E
was observed at Darwin and Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 05-07 Jul, with degraded
conditions for the southern Australian region possible from 06-Jul
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 26.7 p/cc Temp: 22800 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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