[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 7 09:30:47 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jul was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring. There are currently five numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3053 (N16E66, beta) and 
AR3052 (N17E46, beta) and AR3051 (N28E04, beta) have shown slight 
growth. Other numbered regions are stable or decaying. A new 
sunspot region region located around N17W34 of beta complexity 
has developed, and has shown slight growth. Solar activity is 
expected to be at R0 to R1 levels on 07-09 Jul. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. A faint northwest CME was observed in STEREO-A 
and LASCO imagery visible from 06/0209UT but is considered a 
farside event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 06-Jul 
was at near background levels with a declining trend, and is 
currently near 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +4 to -6 nT. An isolated coronal hole seen in 
the northern hemisphere has continued to decrease in surface 
area and is currently located around N30W40. The anticipated 
increase in solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects has 
yet to occur, however is still possible over 07-09 Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00210100
      Darwin               2   11210101
      Learmonth            2   01211100
      Alice Springs        1   00200100
      Gingin               1   10110100
      Canberra             0   00100100
      Hobart               0   00100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                3   11211210
      Mawson               6   31122121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    18    G0 with a slight chance of G1
08 Jul    12    G0 with a slight chance of G1
09 Jul     5    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and 
is current for 6-8 Jul. G0 conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Jul. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected in the Australian region over 07-09 Jul, 
with a slight chance of G1 from 07-Jul due to coronal hole high 
speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 07-09 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for to high 
latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced 
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    55    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    60    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 5 
July and is current for 5-7 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 05-Jul were near predicted monthly values, with mild 
depressions observed at some sites during local night hours. 
Spread-F was observed at most Australian regions during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 07-09 Jul, with degraded conditions possible for the southern 
Australian region due to coronal hole high speed wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    42200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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