[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 12 10:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 104/53
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 11 January UT with one C1.0
flare at 0838 UT from region 2927. There are currently four numbered
regions on the visible disc. Regions 2925 (S35W05) and 2927 (S20E42)
appear stable, region 2924 (S32W39) has displayed minor intermediate
spot development and 2926 (N22W34) has shown slow growth. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on 12-14 January.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available images.
The solar wind speed range on 11 January UT was 362-422 km/s.
The total IMF peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range
was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near nominal
levels on 12-14 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 12012201
Cocos Island 2 11011200
Darwin 4 12112201
Townsville 4 12112211
Learmonth 3 12012201
Alice Springs 3 02012201
Gingin 4 22012300
Canberra 3 12002200
Hobart 3 12111200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 10101200
Casey 12 24333311
Mawson 11 33223420
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 7 Quiet
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on 11 January UT. Quiet to active conditions were observed
in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Australia/NZ
on 12-14 January. Some unsettled conditions are possible late
on 14 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 11 January. Mostly
normal conditions are expected on 12-14 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% 00-01, 09-11 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted to mildly enhanced MUFs were observed
in the Australian region on 11 January. Sporadic E and spread
F observed at Niue 09-18 UT. Spread F observed at Darwin 15-19
UT. Sporadic E observed at Perth and Learmonth 00-03 UT. Near
predicted MUFs are expected 12 to 14 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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