[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 11 10:31:29 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 10 January UT. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disc. There
has been further decay of the intermediate spots in region 2924
(S32W26), 2925 (S35E08) and 2927 (S20E57) appear stable, and
2926 (N22W20) decayed and has redeveloped. Solar activity is
expected to be very low to low on 11-13 January. There was an
asymmetric halo CME first observed at 09/2312 UT from over the
east limb that is unlikely to be geoeffective. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available images. The solar
wind speed range on 10 January UT was 406-487 km/s. The total
IMF peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +3/-4
nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near nominal levels
on 11-13 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22102221
Cocos Island 4 12111220
Darwin 5 22102122
Townsville 6 22103222
Learmonth 6 22103222
Alice Springs 5 22102221
Gingin 6 22102322
Canberra 4 12102221
Hobart 6 --302221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11003111
Casey 19 35432333
Mawson 25 34212563
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3121 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 7 Quiet
12 Jan 7 Quiet
13 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on 10 January UT. Quiet to major storm conditions were
observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for Australia/NZ on 11-13 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 10 January. Mostly
normal conditions are expected on 11-13 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted to mildly enhanced MUFs were observed
in the Australian region on 10 January. Sporadic E was observed
at Perth 06-09 UT, Norfolk Is. 00-06, 12-15 UT, Cocos Is. 00-01,
09-11 UT, Niue 05-08 UT and Townsville 17-23 UT. Near predicted
MUFs are expected 11 to 13 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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