[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 13 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 106/55 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 January. There
are currently five numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 January, with a
chance of C-class flare. A halo CME associated with an eruption
on the Northeast limb was observed starting at 12/0423 UTC. Bulk
of the plasma associated with this CME is directed away from
the earth. This CME could cause a glancing blow at earth on the
early part of UT day 14 January. The solar wind speed range on
12 January UT was 350-420 km/s. The total IMF was mostly steady
near 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5/-4 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be mostly near nominal levels on 13-15
January. There is a chance of slight enhancements on UT day 14
January due to the anticipated glancing blow from the 12 January
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12111112
Cocos Island 3 21111110
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 4 12112112
Alice Springs 4 12102112
Gingin 4 22101112
Canberra 3 12101112
Hobart 3 12100112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 13 34332223
Mawson 8 23212232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on 12 January UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Australia/NZ
today, 13 January. Some unsettled to active conditions on UT
day 14 and 15 January are possible due to the anticipated glancing
blow from the 12 January CME and the formation of CIR associated
with a Southern coronal hole, respectively.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 13-15 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly predicted to mildly enhanced MUFs were observed
in the Australian region on 12 January. Sporadic E and spread
F observed at some Australian sites. Near predicted MUFs are
expected on 13 to 15 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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