[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 4 10:31:10 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 January. Spot 
region AR2916 is rotating off the visible disc and AR2922 (S17W14) 
has decayed to plage. There appears to be spot development near 
S30E64. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 04 
to 06 January. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in 
available images. On 03 January, the solar wind speed range was 
462 to 622 km/s. The peak total IMF was 9 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) range was +7/-6 nT with an extended period of southward 
IMF between 0252 to 0935 UT. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to decline to background levels over 04 January. Near background 
conditions are expected on 05 to 06 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23242211
      Cocos Island         6   22232111
      Darwin               8   23232211
      Townsville          10   23243211
      Learmonth           11   23243212
      Alice Springs        9   23242211
      Gingin               9   23232222
      Canberra             7   13232111
      Hobart              10   23342211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    10   12351111
      Casey               21   46342212
      Mawson              26   35342255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2111 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 03 January, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to active. Quiet to major storm 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected on 04 to 06 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some mild depressions 
possible on 04 to 06 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly with some depressions to 20%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 03 January were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed 
at Canberra 00-03, 20-23 UT, Hobart 00-05, 21-23 UT and Norfolk 
06-09, 17-22 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values on 04 to 06 January with some depressions to 20% as background 
solar flux levels decline.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:   12.4 p/cc  Temp:   444000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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