[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 5 10:31:28 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 January. Newly
numbered AR2924 (S32E52, Cso/beta) has grown since yesterday
and there appears to be another region developing near N23E65.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance
of C-class flares on 05 to 07 January. There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in available images. On 04 January, the solar wind
speed range was 383 to 519 km/s. The peak total IMF was 7 nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +3/-6 nT. Near background
solar wind conditions are expected on 05 to 06 January. On 07
January, a coronal hole wind stream may begin to elevate solar
wind conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 12120001
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 2 11120001
Townsville 3 22120001
Learmonth 2 11120001
Alice Springs 2 12120001
Gingin 2 11120001
Canberra 3 12220001
Hobart 3 22221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12121000
Casey 21 46521111
Mawson 9 34221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1433 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 7 Quiet
06 Jan 7 Quiet
07 Jan 11 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active conditions.
COMMENT: On UT day 04 January, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to major storm conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on 05 to 06 January. Activity may increase to unsettled
to active levels on 07 January with the expected arrival of a
coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected with some mild
depressions possible on 05 to 07 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values with some depressions
to 20%
06 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values with some depressions
to 20%
07 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values with some depressions
to 20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 04 January were
near predicted monthly values with some depressions to 20%. Depressions
20-50% were observed at Darwin 19-21 UT. Sporadic E was occasionally
observed at Canberra, Hobart, Norfolk Is. and Perth, mostly during
daytime. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
with some depressions to 20% as ionising solar flux levels decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 343000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list