[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 3 10:31:12 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 02 January with a C1 
flare at 0012 UT from AR2918 which has rotated off the visible 
disc. There are now two spot groups on the disc, AR2916 (S16W72) 
and AR2922 (S17W00), both appear stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low on 03 to 05 January with a slight chance 
of low level M flares on 03 to 04 January. H-alpha images show 
a filament disappearance at 1425 UT centred at S10W30 but there 
does not appear to be a CME associated with the event. There 
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in available images. On 
02 January, the solar wind speed range was 467 to 623 km/s. The 
peak total IMF was 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was 
+5/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to decline to near 
background levels on 03 January. Nominal conditions are expected 
on 04 to 05 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21111222
      Cocos Island         4   21111212
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           5   12112222
      Learmonth            7   21111323
      Alice Springs        6   21111322
      Gingin               7   21111323
      Canberra             5   22111222
      Hobart               5   22111222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   22112221
      Casey               22   46322333
      Mawson              21   43222355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2322 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan     7    Quiet
05 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 02 January, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to major storm 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet conditions 
are expected on 03 to 05 January with some unsettled periods 
possible on 03 and 05 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 03 to 05 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 
January and is current for 2-3 Jan. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 02 January were near predicted monthly values to 20% 
enhanced with some daytime depressions to 25%. Sporadic E was 
observed at Canberra and Hobart during 16-23 UT. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values on 03 to 05 January with 
some depressions to 20%. There is a slight chance for an isolated 
minor fadeout on 03 to 04 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:   464000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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