[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 23 10:31:13 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 Feb. there
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
2953( N17W00) has shown some development but remained quiet.
All other regions remained relatively stable and inactive. An
unstable filament near the centre of the solar disk(S20W06) is
monitored for any eruption. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available imagery(data gaps 22/0824-1325UT). Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days,
23-25 Feb with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
On UT day 22 Feb, the solar wind speed remained enhanced,ranged
from 500 to 580 Km/s due to continuing coronal hole effects.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked at 7
nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) ranged between +/-5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated
on 23 Feb, returning to near nominal levels on 24-25 Feb. There
is a chance of mild CME impacts on 23 Feb from 19 Feb filament.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22331011
Darwin 6 22322012
Townsville 10 23432012
Learmonth 8 32332021
Alice Springs 7 22331012
Gingin 7 32321021
Canberra 5 12331000
Hobart 9 23431011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 20 23652011
Casey 15 34443022
Mawson 32 56534224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1012 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
24 Feb 7 Mostly quiet
25 Feb 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet
to unsettled with isolated active periods on UT day 22 Feb. Storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 23 Feb with possible isolated active periods
due to continued coronal hole effects and a possible mild coronal
mass ejection impact. Mostly quiet conditions on 24-25 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, 23-25 Feb with a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 21
February and is current for 21-23 Feb. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to moderately
enhanced values on 22 Feb. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on 23-25 Feb with a slight chance of
isolated shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 297000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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