[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 24 10:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 Feb. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
2955( N15E49), a Beta magnetic class, has shown some development
but remained quiet. All other regions remained relatively stable
and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for
the next three UT days, 24-26 Feb with a chance of isolated M
class flares most likely from region 2955. On UT day 23 Feb,
the solar wind speed ranged from 430 to 530 Km/s, trending down
as coronal hole effects wane. The interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) strength peaked at 7 nT and the IMF north-south component
(Bz) ranged between +/-5 nT. A weak indistinct shock was observed
at 23/1230UT with the solar wind speed jumping from 465 to 520
Km/s. BZ turned southward around the same time and has stayed
southward since then. Shock signature was very weak in the solar
wind parameters and was not auto detected. The weak signature
could be the anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Feb CME. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing, returning
to near nominal levels on 24-25 Feb. There is a chance of mild
coronal hole impacts from late 25 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11212212
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 5 11212212
Alice Springs 4 11212112
Gingin 7 21213312
Canberra 3 00212202
Hobart 6 11322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 01233310
Casey 19 35532222
Mawson 22 22322464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 3443 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 7 Mostly quiet
25 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet
with isolated unsettled periods on UT day 23 Feb. Storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on 24 Feb. Possible isolated unsettled to active periods from
late 25 Feb due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, 24-26 Feb with a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on 23 Feb.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 24-26 Feb with a slight chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 318000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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