[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 21 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 22 10:31:22 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 21 Feb. A new region
has rotated around the northeast limb yet to be numbered, mostly
likely the source of a C3 flare at 21/19 UT. All regions on the
visible disk are either stable or in decline. H-Alpha imagery
observed several small solar filaments lifting off the northeast
and northwest quadrants, but yet no associated CMEs have been
discernable in available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available imagery(with data gaps between:
21/0048-0448 UT and 21/0848-1436 UT). Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 UT days, 22-24 Feb with a chance of
isolated M-class flares. On UT day 21 Feb, the solar wind speed
ranged from 480 to 540 Km/s due to continuing coronal hole effects.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked at 8
nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) ranged between +/-6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated
over 22-23 February, returning to near nominal levels on 24 Feb.
There is a chance of mild CME impacts on 23 Feb from 19 Feb filament.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 21234222
Darwin 7 21223222
Townsville 11 21234223
Learmonth 12 21234332
Alice Springs 10 22234222
Gingin 10 21234222
Canberra 7 11233211
Hobart 11 12334222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 20 11256312
Casey 25 54543233
Mawson 27 23334356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 4311 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
23 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
24 Feb 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet
to active on UT day 21 Feb. Storm levels were observed in Antarctica.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22-23 with possible
isolated active periods due to continued coronal hole effects
and a possible mild coronal mass ejection impact. Mostly quiet
conditions on 24 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, 22-24 Feb with a chance of shortwave fadeouts .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 21
February and is current for 21-23 Feb. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to mildly
enhanced levels on 21 Feb. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on 22-24 Feb with a chance of isolated
shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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