[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 21 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 96/43 102/50 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 Feb, with a C5 flare
from region 2954 (N19E78). There are eight numbered regions on
the disk. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 due to the possibility
of M-class flares from region 2954. The solar wind speed peaked
around 555 km/s due to continuing coronal hole effects. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked around 12 nT, with the IMF
north-south component (Bz) ranging between -11 nT to +8 nT. This
solar wind disturbance is expected to continue into 21 Feb. A
glancing blow on 23 Feb from the 19 Feb CME is expected to have
only a weak impact on solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 43210222
Darwin 9 43211222
Townsville 11 43221232
Learmonth 13 53221321
Alice Springs 9 43210222
Gingin 12 53210321
Canberra 4 22110122
Hobart 9 43210222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 43110221
Casey 20 45432332
Mawson 27 53532354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2311 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Feb 12 Unsettled
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region reached
active to minor storm levels briefly on UT day 20 Feb. Storm
periods were observed in Antarctica. Unsettled to active levels
are expected for the Australian region on 21 Feb, abating 22-23
Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, with high-latitude degradations possible. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near monthly predictions to enhanced on UT
day 20 Feb, with Cocos Island depressed during the first half
of the UT day. Australian MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predictions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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