[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 20 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 102/50 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 Feb, with a C1 flare
from region 2946 (S10W39). There are seven numbered regions on
the disk. Preliminary analysis of a south-east CME first observed
around 19/1900 indicates a possible glancing blow around 23/0000.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. Previous
region 2936 (N17) which produced an M1.1 flare last rotation
is expected to return 20 Feb. The solar wind speed peaked around
460 km/s after the onset of northern coronal hole effects. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked around 12
nT, with the IMF north-south component (Bz) ranging between -9
nT to +7 nT. This solar wind disturbance is expected to continue
into 21 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22112213
Darwin 6 22112213
Townsville 6 12112223
Learmonth 7 22113213
Alice Springs 6 22112213
Gingin 8 22113223
Canberra 4 1211220-
Hobart 7 22223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 22244311
Casey 11 33222323
Mawson 19 34422434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1011 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were quiet
to unsettled on UT day 19 Feb. Active conditions were observed
in Antarctica. A mild solar wind disturbance 20-21 Feb due to
coronal hole effects is expected to result in unsettled to active
conditions, abating 22-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, with minor high-latitude degradations possible. Shortwave
fadeouts are unlikely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near monthly predictions to enhanced on UT day 19
Feb. Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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