[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 18 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 19 10:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 93/38 96/43 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 Feb. There
are seven numbered regions on the disk, with region 2943 (S18W84)
due to depart during 19 Feb. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next
3 days. Previous region 2936 (N17) which produced an M1.1 flare
last rotation is expected to return late 20 Feb. The solar wind
speed is at ambient levels but likely to increase when a northern
coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position late 20 Feb.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength rose during
18 Feb to peak at 11 nT, with the IMF north-south component (Bz)
ranging between +/-8 nT. This disturbance is expected to abate
during 19 Feb, with another disturbance expected from late 20
Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 10222222
Darwin 6 11222222
Townsville 8 11233222
Learmonth 7 20222232
Alice Springs 5 20222221
Gingin 6 10222232
Canberra 3 00222111
Hobart 7 10223231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 00214221
Casey 15 33532222
Mawson 16 21322262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2100 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were mostly
quiet on UT day 18 Feb. Isolated storm level periods were observed
in Antarctica. Some unsettled periods are possible in the Australian
region early 19 Feb due to a mild solar wind disturbance then
mostly quiet conditions until late 20 Feb when another disturbance
is expected due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, with minor high-latitude degradations possible on 19 and
21 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are unlikely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near monthly predicted to enhanced on UT day
18 Feb. Similar conditions are expected for the next two days,
with mild depressions possible 21 Feb due to an expected geomagnetic
disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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