[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 17 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 18 10:31:29 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              98/45

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 February, with 
few low C-class flares. Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three UT days (18-20 February), with a chance of C-class 
flares. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available 
satellite imagery. On UT day 17 February, the solar wind speed 
was near its nominal level, ranging from 300 km/s to 400 km/s. 
The total (Bt) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly 
steady near 4 nT, and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
ranged between +2/-2 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly 
near its nominal levels for the next three days (18-20 February), 
with a chance of mild enhancements.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101011
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           2   11101111
      Learmonth            4   21211022
      Alice Springs        3   21101012
      Gingin               4   22101022
      Canberra             1   20101000
      Hobart               4   21202111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   12101000
      Casey               12   44322022
      Mawson              23   33222256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1211 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     5    Quiet
19 Feb     5    Quiet
20 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly at quiet levels on UT day 17 February. Quiet to active 
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The 3-day (18-20 
February) outlook is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly 
quiet, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF condition expected over the next few days. 
Shortwave fadeouts are unlikely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian 
region were mostly near monthly predicted on UT day 17 February. 
Ionospheric frequencies of support are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    56400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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