[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 12 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 13 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0844UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 12-February due
to an isolated low level M class flare from AR2939 (S16W90).
This solar region was declining and is located on the southwest
solar limb and will shortly rotate off the solar disk. The Sun
appears to show numerous small patches of coronal holes/weak
magnetic field structure in SDO 193nm imagery, scattered across
the solar disk. A small solar filament located at S40E35 left
the solar disk around 12UT on 12 February, the location and size
of this filament suggests that it is not likely to be geoeffective.
In addition some very small filament segments may have also erupted
in the solar south-west quadrant 12-16UT but these are also considered
too small to be geoeffective. On UT day 12 February, the solar
wind speed ranged from 509-600km/sec, the total (Bt) interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranging between 8/2nT, and the north-south
component of the IMF, Bz, ranging between 7/-5nT. The solar wind
is expected to remain enhanced on 13 February due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 32213332
Darwin 8 22213322
Townsville 9 22213332
Learmonth 12 32223432
Alice Springs 10 32213332
Gingin 13 32213343
Canberra 7 22213221
Hobart 11 32313332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 32224432
Casey 34 56543343
Mawson 35 44533465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 4323 1253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
15 Feb 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 11 February
and is current for 12-13 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region ranged from quiet to active levels. Minor storm to major
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Mildly elevated
geomagnetic conditions are possible over the next few days with
isolated active periods possible due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. There is a chance for mild induced activity
from a recent small filament eruption possibly from late 13 to
14 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
14 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
15 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded conditions observed on 12
February at middle to high latitudes and are again expected on
13 February due to possible mild geomagnetic activity associated
with a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian
region were briefly depressed after local dawn yesterday at some
southern Australian region sites and then recovered. Strong enhancements
were observed at lower latitude sites. With little induced geomagnetic
activity overnight, frequencies are now expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Degraded HF conditions are possible
during local night hours for southern region Australia over the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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