[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 12 10:31:02 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 11-Feb due to isolated
low level C class flare activity. A small 10 degree long solar
filament visible in GONG Halpha imagery, located at S15E20 erupted
at approximately 12UT on 11 February, however no associated CME
is immediately discernable in the available space based coronagraph
imagery, though there was a data gap in LASCO imagery 09-16UT.
In SDO imagery the erupting filament plasma motion appeared predominately
eastward, suggesting non Earth directed. This event will be assessed
further as more imagery becomes available. A full halo CME was
observed in LASCO C3 imagery at around 02UT on 11 February, this
event is believed to be possibly associated with an erupting
solar filament visible in SDO 304nm imagery on the far north
west solar limb and at this stage is not considered to be Earth
directed. In addition, there was some solar plasma activity at
S20W20 on 10 February at around 20UT in SDO imagery, and this
activity is currently not considered associated with the CME
activity. The solar wind parameters were elevated on 11 February,
with speed ranging from 367 to 498km/sec, the total (Bt) interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranging between 21/8nT, and the north-south
component of the IMF, Bz, ranging between 18/-16nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain enhanced during 12-13 February due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 22242443
Darwin 13 22142433
Townsville 16 22252433
Learmonth 23 33152544
Alice Springs 16 22252433
Gingin 22 33242355
Canberra 11 12241333
Hobart 15 23341343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 33320243
Casey 29 44632254
Mawson 45 55442375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 2212 2654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 16 Unsettled to Active chance of isolated minor
storm period
13 Feb 18 Unsettled to Active chance of isolated minor
storm period
14 Feb 13 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 11 February
and is current for 12-13 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated minor
storm to severe storm periods were observed in the Antarctic
region. Mildly elevated geomagnetic conditions are possible over
the next two days with geomagnetic conditions expected to reach
active levels, with isolated minor storm periods possible, due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Also, there is
a chance of an increase in geomagnetic activity in approximately
two days time from a small solar filament eruption on 11 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Fair Fair
13 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed on 11 February and
are again expected on 12 Feb due to moderate geomagnetic activity
associated with a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
14 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 9
February and is current for 10-12 Feb. Frequencies of ionospheric
support in the Australian region were mostly mildly depressed
during the local day yesterday. Similar conditions are expected
for 12 Feb, in particular for the southern Australian region
with frequency depressions of 15-20% after local dawn then recovering,
which can be expected over the next two days. Northern Australian
region ionospheric frequencies are expected to be near to 15%
enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 71900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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