[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 14 10:31:11 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   103/52             100/48              98/45

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 13 February. Solar 
region AR2941 (N25W53) has shown spot development ahead of its 
trailer spot. An isolated low level M class flare is possible. 
A solar filament located at N50E30 to N30E15 may have left the 
solar disk, but as yet no associated CME has been discernable 
in coronagraph imagery. Solar activity was noted on/behind the 
far southwest and northwest solar limb. Due to a lack of any 
on disk solar activity recent CMEs visible in LASCO coronagraphs 
do not appear to be Earth directed. On UT day 13 February, the 
solar wind speed ranged from 575 to 472km/sec, with an overall 
declining trend. The total (Bt) interplanetary magnetic field 
(IMF) ranged between 7/2nT, and the north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) ranged between 6/-6nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22223322
      Darwin               8   22223312
      Townsville           9   22223322
      Learmonth           11   32223332
      Alice Springs        9   22223322
      Gingin              12   32213432
      Canberra             6   12213211
      Hobart              10   22224322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    18   33345322
      Casey               31   36643323
      Mawson              43   55533556

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3321 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb     8    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region ranged 
from quiet to active levels. Minor storm to major storm periods 
were observed in the Antarctic region. The regional geomagnetic 
field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a chance 
that recent small filament eruption(s) may cause a mild increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions were observed on 13 February 
at middle to high latitudes. Normal HF condition expected over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian 
region were depressed 15-20% during the local day yesterday in 
the Western Australian region (Perth and Learmonth). Other regional 
locations were near to above predicted monthly values, though 
Darwin was briefly depressed 15% after local dawn and then recovered 
and became enhanced. Ionospheric frequencies of support are expected 
to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   271000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list