[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 22 issued 2336 UT on 03 Feb 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 4 10:36:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 03 February, due to
low level C class flaring. Solar region AR2936 (N16W54) and solar
region AR2940 (N18E26) have been reported to have shown slight
decay. Current M-class flare probability is 50%. A small coronal
hole is visible near and just west of solar central meridian.
Possibly two coronal mass ejections have been recently observed,
the first around 0238UT appears to be from solar activity from
the far south-west limb and is not considered geoeffective. The
second at around 0348UT, appears to be possibly associated with
activity from region AR2936. The CMEs may have overlapped making
individual event analysis more difficult. Preliminary analysis
shows that the larger CME from LASCO imager was probably from
the far southwest limb event, and unlikely to reach the Earth.
The solar wind parameters were expected to continue to show the
declining effects of a recent coronal mass ejection, surprisingly
the north-south component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) began to gradually drift increasingly southward from
around 03UT to reach -18nT at around 07UT, then return to mildly
northward orientation. The cause of this is unclear, it may be
a rotating magnetic structure in the solar wind that occurred
on 19 Dec, and 14 Jan, but if so it has occurred earlier than
27 day patterns would suggest, or perhaps from a recent minor
southwest directed coronal mass ejection, but no clear discontinuity
in solar wind parameters is evident.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 23355322
Darwin 20 23355322
Townsville 25 23365332
Learmonth 26 33365332
Alice Springs 20 23355322
Gingin 21 32355422
Canberra 13 12353221
Hobart 19 23454322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 28 12565422
Casey 27 46453222
Mawson 42 45555364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3200 2411
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 12 Unsettled
06 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to minor storm levels on UT day 03 February. An isolated
major storm period was briefly observed in Antarctica. The geomagnetic
field was expected to slowly decline from mild activity induced
by a recent CME. However, the geomagnetic field reached minor
storm levels overnight due to unexpected strongly southward interplanetary
magnetic field conditions. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be observed 05-06 February due to a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions became unexpectedly degraded on 03 February
due to unexpected geomagnetic storm activity. Initially poor
HF conditions expected for 04 February for middle to high latitudes,
recovering to fair as the day progresses. Also, a mild degradation
may be experienced 06 February. Shortwave fadeouts are possible
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near to 70% above predicted monthly values on 3 February.
The ionosphere for southern region Australia was expected to
remain depressed during the local day yesterday, but recovered
more quickly then became enhanced. Degraded HF conditions were
observed for the southern region Australia during local night
hours due to unexpected overnight geomagnetic storm activity.
As a result of this overnight geomagnetic activity the regional
ionosphere is depressed about 20-30% in the southern Australian
region this morning. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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