[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 3 10:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 02 February. Solar
region AR2936 (N16W39) and solar region AR2940 (N18E46) both
produced several C class flares, the largest a C5.5 at 1004UT
from AR2940. On disk activity was observed in US SDO satellite
imagery on 01 February at 2118UT near solar region AR2936 resulting
in a narrow south-west directed CME, post event modelling suggest
this slow event is minor and not significantly Earth directed.
A small coronal hole is visible at the solar central meridian
and the Earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind stream
from this hole in about three days time. Following yesterdays
shock arrival the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward
for much of 02 February, with only a brief mild southward interval
1340-1545UT. On 02 February the solar wind speed varied between
498/394km/s, the total IMF(Bt) varied between 12/3nT and the
north-south IMF (Bz) range was +11/-7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 32111321
Darwin 7 32111322
Townsville 9 32111422
Learmonth 8 32212322
Alice Springs 7 32111322
Gingin 6 31111321
Canberra 4 22111300
Hobart 7 22111421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 22102411
Casey 23 46432322
Mawson 19 53223522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1200 1114
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 12 Unsettled, isolated active period possible.
04 Feb 8 Unsettled
05 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 02 February. An isolated major storm
level period was briefly observed in Antarctica. The anticipated
geomagnetic storm activity has failed to eventuate as the north-south
component of the solar winds interplanetary magnetic field remained
mostly northward after the CME shock arrival late yesterday.
Isolated active periods may be experienced early in the UT day
on 03 February, in general the geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A mild increase in geomagnetic
activity may be observed 05-06 February due to a small coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal on UT day 02 February.
The anticipated degradation in HF conditions has failed to eventuate,
due to very weak geomagnetic activity observed post CME shock
arrival. Shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 115% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 25 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued
on 31 January and is current for 2-3 Feb. Australian regional
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near to 115% above predicted
monthly values on 2 February, with very strongly enhanced conditions
observed at Cocos Island. Due to weak overnight geomagnetic activity
strongly depressed/degraded HF conditions are now not expected,
with mild to moderately depressed frequencies likely early in
the UT day 03 February, then recovering. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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