[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 04 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 5 10:31:21 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 128/81 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 04 February, with C
flares from regions 2936 and 2941, the largest, a C5.9 at 1550
UT. There are five regions on the disc with 2936 (N16W67) in
decay, 2939 (S16E17) stable, 2938 (N18W42) and 2940 (N18E12)
with decay in leader and growth in trailer spots, and 2941 (N24E78).
Solar activity is expected to be moderate on 05-07 February with
best potential for flaring from 2936, 2940 and 2941. There were
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed originating from region
2936 and the east limb but none are expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind parameters remained enhanced on 04 February with
the speed peaking early in the period at 581 km/s and is now
around 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) strength was 12 nT. The north-south IMF was mostly southward
maintaining a moderate intensity with a range through the period
of +4/-10 nT. The cause of the elevated conditions is likely
to be CME related. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain
elevated 05-07 February from coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 23 33334544
Darwin 21 33234543
Townsville 25 43334544
Learmonth 26 43344544
Alice Springs 22 33334543
Gingin 24 33244544
Canberra 14 23333333
Hobart 29 33445544
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 56 34557655
Casey 24 44434434
Mawson 76 45535875
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 26
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 18 Unsettled to Active. Possible isolated Minor
Storm.
06 Feb 14 Quiet to Active. Possible isolated Minor Storm.
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 4 February and
is current for 5-6 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at quiet to minor storm levels on UT day 04 February.
Conditions were at unsettled to severe storm levels at southern
high latitudes. A weak (12 nT) impulse was observed at 1310 UT
in the SWS magnetometer data. The cause of the continued elevated
conditions is uncertain but likely to be CME related. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active on 05-06
February with isolated minor storm periods possible. On 07 February,
quiet to unsettled conditions are likely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions with some MUF depressions
possible at mid to high latitudes on 05 and 06 February. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 40 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 50 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 4
February and is current for 4-6 Feb. Eastern Australian region
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly depressed with
some enhancements during local night. Frequencies were enhanced
at Niue and in the western Australian region with depressions
at Learmonth and Perth just prior to local dawn onwards. Variable
conditions are likely 05-07 February with continuing geomagnetic
activity expected. Depressions likely at times at mid and high
latitudes. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 300000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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