[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0338UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.7 1107UT probable lower European
M2.6 1456UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.6 1705UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.7 1857UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Aug was at the R2 level,
with five M-class flares. All flares were from AR3088, with the
largest being an M8.6 at 29/1113UT. From 29/1624UT to 29/1704UT
the X-ray flux data is missing, during which a flare occurred,
however its magnitude cannot be determined. The last X-ray flux
from the flare before the data gap was M2.3. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, not including
AR3088 which is currently on the western limb. AR3089 (S23E10,
beta-gamma-delta) has shown growth and increased magnetic complexity.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1 levels over 30-Aug to 01-Sep,
with a chance of R2. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A fast
west-directed CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
from 29/1700UT, associated with a solar flare from AR3088 of
unknown magnitude due to missing data. A filament eruption occurred
at S21W05 from 29/1434UT, but no subsequent CME has been observed.
The solar wind was elevated on UT day 29-Aug,ranging from 380-540
km/s and is currently near 500 km/s. A weak shock was observed
in the solar wind at 29/0258UT, likely from a glancing blow from
a CME first observed on 27-Aug. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -10 nT. Bz was not southward for a significant
amount of time in the 24-hour period. The solar wind is expected
to remain elevated over 30-Aug to 01-Sep, due to a high speed
wind stream effect from a large coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 14222221
Cocos Island 6 14212110
Darwin 8 24212221
Townsville 10 14223222
Learmonth 9 14322220
Alice Springs 8 14222221
Gingin 8 13322130
Canberra 10 14233221
Hobart 10 14233221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 13344110
Casey 12 34332222
Mawson 20 45423233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2112 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
31 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
01 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 in Mawson. Geomagnetic conditions were mildly unsettled due
to a glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug, but did
not breach threshold levels. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-Aug to 01-Sep, with a chance of G1, due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 30-Aug
to 01-Sep, particularly during local night hours due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and a glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
31 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
29 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Aug were near predicted monthly to 25% depressed,
particularly during local night. Spread F was observed at northern
Australian sites over local night. Sporadic E was observed at
most sites. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 30-Aug to 01-Sep, with mild depressions possible
on 30-Aug due to the combined effects of coronal hole high speed
wind streams and a glancing blow from a CME first observed on
27-Aug. Mild depressions are also possible during local night
over 30-31 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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