[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 29 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0121UT possible lower West Pacific
M6.7 1619UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 252/202
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity R0-R1,chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 126/79 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Aug was at the R2 level,
with three long duration M-class flares. An M1.4 flare at 28/0134UT,
an M6.7 at 28/1619UT and an M4.6 at 28/1832. An S1 level proton
event is possible due to the long duration M6.7 flare. All M-class
flares were due to sunspot region AR3088 (S19W84, beta). There
are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3089 (S23E20, beta) showed spot development over the UT day.
AR3088 almost completely rotated off the solar disk over the
24-hour period. All other sunspot regions were either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level
over 29-31 Aug, with a chance of R2. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. Two west directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery on 28-Aug. One from 28/0948UT with an eruption
visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 28/0740UT associated with a
C9.9 flare at 28/0748UT from AR3088. Another from 28/1612UT with
an eruption visible in GOES SUVI 304 imagery from 28/1604UT associated
with the M6.7 flare from AR3088. Modelling indicates neither
of these CMEs have an earth-directed component. The solar wind
speed was mildly elevated on 28-Aug, ranging between 525 and
382 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to increase
over 29-31 Aug, due to the combined effects of a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed wind
stream effects from a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
which is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position over
29-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11231111
Cocos Island 3 11121110
Darwin 5 12221112
Townsville 6 12231112
Learmonth 5 22221210
Alice Springs 4 11230111
Gingin 5 21131120
Canberra 4 11131101
Hobart 6 11141211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 11151011
Casey 14 35332221
Mawson 11 33322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1113 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
30 Aug 15 G0
31 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 28 August and
is current for 29 Aug only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 28-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region on UT day 28-Aug,
with isolated periods of G1 at Macquarie Island and Casey. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug, with a chance
of G2 due to the combined effects of a possible glancing blow
from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed wind stream
effects from a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
which is rotating towards a geoeffective position. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 30-31 Aug, with a possibility of unsettled
conditions due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1150UT 27/08, Ended at 1830UT 27/08
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1915UT 27/08, Ended at 2125UT 27/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 29-31
Aug, particularly during local night hours due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Aug were
near predicted monthly to 20% depressed, particularly during
local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Brisbane and Townsville
over local night. Sporadic E was observed at Cocos Island during
local night. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 29-31, with mild depressions possible on
29-Aug due to the combined effects of coronal hole high speed
wind streams and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 27-Aug. Mild depressions are also possible during local night
over 30-31 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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